Geo-Friction Manageable; Caution Gold, Oil Pullback Risks

News 2024-10-10 (50)

Gold Market:

Israel claims that over 100 fighter jets, including cutting-edge F-35 stealth fighters, participated in the attack on Iran. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated that Israel's attack on Iran was unsuccessful compared to the missile attack launched on October 1st, and promised that Tehran would retaliate. The market-anticipated Israeli action has finally been realized, and since Israel did not attack Iran's nuclear and energy facilities, investors need to be wary of the risk of a short-term drop in gold prices.

The United States' one-year inflation rate forecast for October recorded a final value of 2.7%, lower than the market expectation and the previous value of 2.9%. The cooling of inflation expectations will continue to support the Federal Reserve's easing, and the bullish trend in gold prices is expected to continue.

Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, last week's market continued to rise and closed with a positive candle, indicating that gold prices are relatively strong. In terms of indicators, the market is still operating above the 20-day moving average, and the bullish trend is expected to continue. Intraday, pay attention to the resistance at $2,750 and support at $2,700.

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Crude Oil Market:

As of October 25th, the number of oil rigs in the United States recorded 480, lower than the previous value of 482. The reduction in the number of rigs may lead to a decline in the high US crude oil production, which is an important support for the recently pessimistic oil prices.

Over the weekend, Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear facilities. The market's concerns about Middle East geopolitical frictions, especially the conflict between Israel and Iran, do not appear to have disrupted energy supplies at the moment, which is likely to be unfavorable for oil prices to rise in the short term.

Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, last week's market rebounded from a low position and closed with a positive candle, indicating that the market is relatively strong. However, the market is still operating below the 20-day moving average, with bears still in control, and investors need to be cautious of the risk of further declines in oil prices. Intraday, pay attention to the resistance at $70 and support at $67.

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