S&P, Nasdaq Hit Records; Apple Jumps 7%, US Bond Yields Plunge

On Tuesday, stock markets experienced mixed performances, with the technology sector generally rising while others fell. Thanks to DA Davison and Bank of America raising their target price for Apple to $230, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached new highs due to a 7% surge in Apple's stock price. Analysts predict that Apple's AI products will stimulate consumers to upgrade their iPhones. It appears that investors have chosen to take profits from Nvidia and reallocate funds to Apple.

The decline in U.S. Treasury yields may be attributed to investors betting on a cooldown in CPI inflation, which has driven U.S. stock markets higher. Treasury bonds have attracted buying across all maturities, especially after the 10-year Treasury auction showed strong demand. Due to political uncertainty, the euro has performed poorly in the foreign exchange market, and investors' focus has shifted to the key risk event on Wednesday—the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and CPI data.

Comments suggest that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, and its policy statement may be slightly adjusted from May's. The market's focus will be on economic forecasts and the dot plot. Given the high inflation report for the first quarter and last week's strong non-farm employment data, the Federal Reserve may raise the median expectation for the federal funds rate in 2024. Renowned journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Mouthpiece," stated that the latest "dot plot" will become a new focal point for the market, with most economists and Fed watchers expecting only one to two rate cuts later this year.

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The May U.S. CPI report will be released on the same day as the FOMC meeting, potentially affecting the expectations for the dot plot. Chairman Powell has indicated that the Fed can update its forecasts later in the day of the meeting, so CPI data may be incorporated into the Fed's decision-making process. After the interest rate decision, policy statement, and summary of economic projections are released, the market will focus on Chairman Powell's press conference.

Analysis suggests that the May U.S. CPI is expected to rise slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, slowing down compared to April's increase, and the year-on-year increase is expected to remain at 3.4%. The core CPI is expected to remain flat at 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year expectation of 3.5%, slightly lower than April's 3.6%.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new highs, with Apple's stock price rising by over 7%, while Nvidia fell by 0.71%.

On Tuesday, June 11th, the night before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision statement was released, the three major U.S. stock indices opened slightly lower collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average maintained its downward trend throughout the day, falling nearly 1.09% at its lowest point. However, the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which are heavily weighted with technology stocks, turned positive in the early and late U.S. stock sessions, respectively, and set new daily highs. The Russell Small Cap Index did not manage to turn positive throughout the day, falling nearly 1.26% at its lowest point, with the Nasdaq showing the largest relative increase among the main indices.

As of the close, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all set new historical closing highs:

- The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 120.62 points, a decrease of 0.31%, at 38,747.42 points.

- The S&P 500 Index closed up 14.53 points, an increase of 0.27%, at 5,375.32 points.

- The Nasdaq closed up 151.02 points, an increase of 0.88%, at 17,343.55 points.

- The Nasdaq 100 Index closed up 135.51 points, an increase of 0.71%, at 19,210.19 points.

- The Nasdaq Technology Market Value Weighted Index (NDXTMC) closed up 1.26% at a historical high, at 1,668.7560 points.

- The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index closed down 0.02%, at 4,512.96 points.In terms of news:

At Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), Apple unveiled an "AI suite," and Wall Street firms, including Wedbush Securities, believe that Apple's AI products will stimulate consumers to upgrade their iPhones. DA Davison and Bank of America have raised their target price for Apple to $230. Analysis suggests that investors seem to be choosing to take profits from NVIDIA and reallocate funds to Apple Inc.

Investment banks such as J.P. Morgan believe that Tesla is unlikely to launch autonomous taxis within a few years. Although Tesla will showcase the concept of autonomous taxis on August 8th, and may also release a related app, it may take many years for this business to generate substantial revenue. J.P. Morgan has a sell rating on Tesla's stock, with a target price of $115.

If Tesla shareholders vote against reinstating Musk's $5.6 billion compensation package on Thursday, Musk may follow through on his threat to take AI research to other companies, or he may even leave. Analysts warn that if the proposal is rejected, the company's stock price is expected to be under pressure.

Chinese concept stocks generally fell. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.59%, at 6,135.01 points:

Among ETFs, China ETF-iShares MSCI (MCHI) closed down 1.05%, Deutsche Bank's Harvest CSI 300 Index ETF (ASHR) closed down 0.74%, China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 0.62%, Xtrackers Harvest CSI 50 (ASHS) closed up 0.07%, and China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up 0.46%.

In terms of popular individual stocks, JD.com closed down 0.61%, Baidu fell 1.61%, Pinduoduo fell 1.04%. Alibaba fell 1.77%, and Tencent ADR fell 0.38%. New energy vehicles plummeted, with NIO Inc. falling 5.51%, Li Auto falling 1.95%, XPeng Inc. falling 5.42%, and Ji氪 falling 6.51%.

Retail investor enthusiasm for group buying stocks remains unabated. GameStop rose more than 22.8%, and AMC Entertainment Holdings rose 10.83%.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals reached a high of 15.93% during the trading day and closed up 14.56%. Research firm Wolfe Research has given the company's stock an "outperform" rating, expressing high hopes for its new liver disease drug Rezdiffra, which it believes will be "the most important product launch in the biotechnology industry in 2024."Paramount's stock price plummeted by 11% during trading due to the failure of its controlling shareholder to reach a consensus with Skydance on acquisition matters, leading to the suspected collapse of Skydance's acquisition plan.

Affirm Holdings, the American version of Huabei, saw its stock price surge by 11% after announcing that its "buy now, pay later" loan service would be integrated into Apple Pay. According to the company's filed documents, iPhone and iPad users in the United States will enjoy this new feature later this year.

General Motors' stock price once rose by more than 2.8% due to the company's launch of a $6 billion share repurchase plan. However, due to slower-than-expected demand, General Motors has lowered its 2024 electric vehicle sales forecast and expects this year's electric vehicle sales to be between 200,000 and 250,000 units, lower than the previously expected 300,000, and the company will invest more than $800 million into its autonomous driving division, Cruise.

Looking at the industry sectors, the technology sector "defied the market" by rising by more than 1.6%, while the financial sector lagged behind:

The 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index generally closed lower, with the technology sector "defying the market" by rising by more than 1.6%, with Apple leading all S&P constituents. The S&P financial sector closed down by 1.21%, energy and discretionary consumption sectors fell by up to 0.22%, the telecommunications sector rose by 0.53%, and the information technology/technology sector rose by 1.66%, continuing to set a new closing historical high.

Among all the constituents of the S&P 500 Index, Apple and First Solar led the pack, while State Street Global Advisors fell by 4.33%, ranking fourth from the bottom, New Era Energy fell by 5.5%, Southwest Airlines fell by 5.56%, and Paramount Global fell by 7.85%.

U.S. stock broad asset ETFs showed mixed gains and losses. The Soybean Fund, U.S. Real Estate ETF, Dow Jones ETF, Russell 2000 Index ETF, Emerging Markets ETF, Barclays U.S. Convertible Bond ETF, and Euro Long ETF fell by up to 0.69%, while the U.S. Dollar Index Long ETF, S&P 500 ETF, Inflation Bond Index ETF, Gold ETF, and Nasdaq 100 ETF rose by up to 0.69%, the U.S. Treasury 20+ Year ETF rose by more than 1%, and the Agricultural Products Fund rose by more than 1.5%.

U.S. industry ETFs generally closed lower. The Global Airline Industry ETF fell by 1.8%, the financial industry ETF fell by more than 1.1%, the banking industry ETF, regional bank ETF, energy industry ETF, and semiconductor ETF fell by up to 0.88%, the Internet Stock Index ETF closed up by 0.28%, the Global Technology Stock Index ETF rose by 1.36%, and the technology industry ETF rose by 1.86%.

European stocks, known as the "Eleven罗汉," generally fell, with AstraZeneca closing down by 1.78%, LVMH Group closing down by 1.30%, while Roche Holding closed up by 0.79%, being the only "constituent" to close higher. Outside of the "Eleven罗汉," the weight loss drug concept stock Zealand Pharmaceuticals closed down by 1.82%. BE Semiconductor Industries closed up by 4.97%, reaching a new closing high since March 7th. The UK stock market rarely welcomed an IPO, with software company Raspberry PI Ltd.'s London IPO rising by 42.5% during the first day of trading.

U.S. Treasury yields fell by more than 5 basis points, detaching from the monthly high, while French government financing costs soared by 24 basis points over four days.On the eve of the release of the U.S. CPI data and the FOMC interest rate decision statement, U.S. Treasury yields were almost entirely in a downward trend throughout Tuesday, with U.S. Treasury prices rising across the board. The strong demand at the U.S. Treasury auction weighed on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which fell by approximately 6.9 basis points:

At the close, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to interest rates, was in a downtrend throughout the day, ending down by 5.27 basis points at 4.8277%, trading within the range of 4.8804%-4.8235%. The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield was also in a downtrend throughout the day, ending down by 6.89 basis points at 4.3981%, trading within the range of 4.4631%-4.3942%.

The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 6.32 basis points, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 6.40 basis points.

The three-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8.67 basis points, the five-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 6.90 basis points, and the seven-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 7.33 basis points.

The three-month Treasury bill/10-year U.S. Treasury yield spread fell by 4.328 basis points to -97.894 basis points. The 2/10-year U.S. Treasury yield spread fell by 1.237 basis points to -43.169 basis points. The U.S. 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield fell by 4.88 basis points to 2.1134%.

It is reported that after the U.S. Treasury disclosed the issuance results of the 10-year Treasury bonds at 01:00 Beijing time, the yield experienced a significant drop, with the yield of this duration of Treasury bonds falling from 4.46% to 4.4197%, hitting a daily low.

Investors continue to pay attention to the political situation in France, with the 10-year France/Germany bond yield spread reaching the highest since March 2020:

As the benchmark for the eurozone, the 10-year German bund yield fell by 4.8 basis points, ending the previous three consecutive trading days of rebound, reporting at 2.622%, trading within the range of 2.687%-2.616%. The two-year German bund yield fell by 6.6 basis points, reporting at 3.020%, trading within the range of 3.096%-3.000%; the 30-year German bund yield fell by 2.0 basis points, reporting at 2.774%. The 2/10-year German bund yield spread rose by 1.734 basis points, reporting at -39.979 basis points.

The French 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.2 basis points, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of increase (with a cumulative rise of 24.1 basis points during the period), reporting at 3.228%. At 19:18 Beijing time, it once rose to 3.327%, approaching the top of 3.329% on November 13, 2023, and on October 4 of that year, it had risen to 3.597%.

The Spanish 10-year government bond yield fell by 3.2 basis points, reporting at 3.411%.Italian 10-year government bond yields fell by 0.1 basis points, rising by 25.1 basis points over four days, to 4.072%, and at 19:42 Beijing time, they had risen to 4.180%.

UK 10-year government bond yields fell by 5.3 basis points, to 4.268%. Two-year UK bond yields fell by 6.7 basis points, to 4.346%. 30-year UK bond yields fell by 2.5 basis points, and 50-year UK bond yields fell by 2.6 basis points. The 2/10-year UK bond yield spread rose by 1.400 basis points, to -7.921 basis points.

Greek 10-year government bond yields rose by 0.6 basis points, to 3.778%, and at 19:42 Beijing time, they had risen to 3.865%.

The US Dollar Index, which measures against a basket of six major currencies, hit a four-week high, with the euro falling for two consecutive days, the yen briefly turning positive and rising above 157, and Bitcoin briefly falling below $67,000.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.11% to 105.270 points, holding above the 105 mark, and moving away from the daily high of 105.459 points.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.17%, to 1265.81 points, moving away from the daily high of 1267.26 points.

Among Asian currencies, the US dollar against the yen rose by 0.05%, to 157.12, trading in the range of 156.81-157.40. The euro against the US dollar fell by 0.20%, the pound against the US dollar rose by 0.08%, and the US dollar against the Swiss franc rose by 0.10%; among commodity currency pairs, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell by 0.03%, the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar rose by 0.20%, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar fell by 0.02%.

The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar was reported at 7.2717 yuan, down 59 points from Monday's New York close, trading overall in the range of 7.2625-7.2747 yuan.

The CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract was reported at $67,615.00, down 3.23% from Monday's New York close. The CME Ether futures DCR main contract was reported at $3,493.00, down 5.15% from Monday.

The EIA raised its oil demand forecast, with WTI crude oil closing up 0.2%, and a hot June driving natural gas up by more than 7%.On Tuesday, oil prices generally continued their upward trend. WTI July crude oil futures closed up $0.16, a gain of 0.20%, at $77.90 per barrel. Brent August crude oil futures closed up $0.29, a gain of 0.35%, at $81.92 per barrel.

During the session, US WTI crude oil prices rose as much as $0.62 or nearly 0.8%, briefly breaking through the $78 mark, while Brent crude prices rose as much as $0.73 or 0.89%, briefly returning above $82, both hitting new highs in over a week.

In addition, the crude oil futures contract 2407 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.60% in the night session.

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for oil demand growth this year. The EIA increased its expectation for global crude oil demand growth in 2024 by 180,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day (previously 920,000 barrels per day). It also increased its expectation for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 by 80,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day (previously 1.42 million barrels per day). Furthermore, the OPEC monthly report pointed out that although oil usage in the first quarter was lower than expected, the service industry and tourism will support consumption and drive oil demand growth in the second half of the year. Analysis suggests that this week's rebound may be the result of traders buying on dips.

European natural gas futures rose and then fell, with investors focusing on supply issues related to the Australian Wheatstone LNG project, while a hot June drove natural gas prices up by more than 7%:

At the end of the European trading session, the European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell 0.70%, to €34.170 per megawatt-hour, having risen to a daily high of €35.200.

ICE UK natural gas futures fell 0.97%, to 80.520 pence per therm, having risen to 83.500 pence at one point.

However, US natural gas futures closed up over 7.67%, at $3.1290 per million British thermal units. NYMEX July gasoline futures closed at $2.4089 per gallon, and NYMEX July heating oil futures closed at $2.4213 per gallon.

Gold closed up 0.29%, while silver fell 1.8%, and London industrial metals all fell, with zinc and lead both falling by more than 2.2%.

COMEX August gold futures closed up 0.29%, at $2,333.85 per ounce, breaking through the $2,330 mark. COMEX July silver futures closed down 1.8%, at $29.335 per ounce. Notably, New York gold futures had softened at one point during the early European trading session.Spot gold rose by 0.29%,报价2317.01美元/盎司,交易区间在2297.84-2319.98美元,北京时间20:00左右出现了超过10美元的显著拉升。

Today, the World Gold Council (WGC) stated that it will be difficult for the global gold mining industry to continue increasing production. After 2008, global gold experienced about 10 years of rapid production growth, and by 2018, production capacity had basically peaked, with a 1% decline in global gold production in 2020; looking ahead, it will become increasingly difficult to explore and find gold mineral reserves, and even if gold mines are found, obtaining mining permits, financing, and production operations will become increasingly challenging.

At the same time, China's cooling gold demand has triggered a bearish sentiment in the market. However, World Gold Council CEO David Tait said that China is just waiting and observing. If the gold price falls back to the level of $2,200 per ounce, the country will resume its gold purchases. StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell said that China's gold purchases in April were minimal, and there were no purchases in May, but this does not mean they won't start buying again.

Some analysts also pointed out that today, the dollar and gold are rising in tandem, which is an unusual phenomenon, and we are facing a special period where there is still demand for safe-haven assets.

The dollar's rise has led to a decline in London's basic industrial metals:

The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" copper closed down $140, with a drop of more than 1.41%, at $9,759 per ton, bidding farewell to the psychological threshold of the $10,000 round number. COMEX copper futures fell by 0.59%, at $4.5168 per pound. London zinc closed down by $80, a drop of about 2.81%. London aluminum closed down by $38, a drop of about 1.48%. London lead closed down by $50, a drop of more than 2.26%. London nickel closed down by $73. London tin closed down by $88.

According to the latest report from the London Metal Exchange, last week's London copper inventory continued to rise, reaching 125,325 tons, increasing to a new high of over eight months. Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange also shows that in the week of June 7th, Shanghai copper inventory increased by 4.75% to 336,964 tons, a new high in over four years. Last week, international copper inventory increased by 1,105 tons to 23,266 tons. Last week, New York copper inventory continued to decline, with the latest inventory level at 12,840 tons, falling to a new low in three and a half months.