US PPI Dips; S&P, Nasdaq Hit Records; Apple Tops Microsoft; Treasury Yields at 10-Week Low

U.S. stocks pre-market: U.S. May PPI data, released before the U.S. stock market opened, fell short of Wall Street expectations, adding to the favorable conditions for a rate cut. The U.S. May PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in seven months, and the report also showed that the May core PPI was below the expected growth of 0.3%, proving the easing of inflationary pressures. In addition, the initial claims data released on the same day showed that the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level in nine months, further cooling the labor market and increasing signs of slow U.S. economic growth.

Commentators say that this month's data has strengthened confidence in a rate cut, but it still needs to wait, and some more stubborn components must show signs of easing before a rate cut can begin. UBS economists have postponed their expectations for the Fed's first rate cut from September to December. While inflation cools, the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, continuing to perform the function of "stabilizing market fluctuations," which may also be for the November U.S. elections. After the PPI data was released, the money market now expects two 25 basis point rate cuts before the end of the year, higher than the 44 basis point expectation before the data release. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is close to 70%.

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In terms of market reactions, large technology stocks and bonds benefited the most. The S&P 500 index and the technology stock-dominated Nasdaq both set new closing highs. After the data release, U.S. Treasury bonds quickly strengthened, U.S. bond yields plummeted, and the 30-year Treasury auction performed strongly. The U.S. dollar fell in the short term but rose at the end of the day. The expectation of a rate cut did not support the rise in precious metals, with gold and silver plunging, and London's basic industrial metals generally fell. Oil prices rose slightly and closed almost flat.

In Japan, the market generally expects that the Bank of Japan will keep its current policy interest rate unchanged at the end of the two-day monetary policy meeting on Friday, with the short-term interest rate target expected to continue at the 0.0% to 0.1% level. Money market forecasts show that the probability of keeping rates unchanged is as high as 91%, while the possibility of a 10 basis point rate hike is only 9%. In addition, the market focus will turn to the government bond purchase plan, as media reports suggest that as the Bank of Japan gradually achieves policy normalization, it may assess whether it needs to reduce the monthly government bond purchase volume of about 6 trillion yen.

S&P 500, Nasdaq set new highs again, Apple's market value surpasses Microsoft, Broadcom leads chip stocks with a gain of more than 12%.

On Thursday, June 13th, the unexpected decline in the U.S. May PPI supported expectations for a rate cut, with only the Dow opening lower among the major U.S. stock indices, briefly turning positive at the end of the day before turning negative again; the S&P 500 index, which opened higher, and the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, turned negative after the U.S. stock market lunch break and then turned positive, continuing to rise and setting a new daily high. The Russell Small Cap Index maintained its downward trend throughout the day, falling more than 1.5%, with the Nasdaq having the largest relative increase among the major indices.

As of the close, the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all set new historical highs, with the Dow falling for three consecutive days:

The S&P 500 index rose by 12.71 points, a gain of 0.23%, to 5433.74 points. The Dow fell by 65.11 points, a drop of 0.17%, to 38,647.10 points. The Nasdaq rose by 59.12 points, a gain of 0.34%, to 17,667.56 points.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.57% to a new high, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Value Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, rose 1.09% to a new high. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks closed down 0.88%, and the "fear index" VIX closed down 0.83%, falling below the 12 level for the first time since May 24th.

Looking at the industry indices, the Nasdaq Technology Index closed up about 1.1%. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index closed down 0.15%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 1.48%. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index closed down 0.53%. The Dow Jones KBW Regional Bank Index closed down 1.56%.Star tech stocks experienced mixed movements, with Apple claiming the top spot in global market value. Apple closed up by 0.55%, continuing to set a new record high for closing value, with a closing market value of approximately $3.285 trillion, surpassing Microsoft once again. Nvidia rose by over 3.5%, "catching up" to these two companies. In the last three trading days, Apple accumulated a 10.94% increase, marking the best performance for the same period since 2020. Microsoft closed up by 0.12%, with a closing market value of $3.281 trillion, while Tesla closed up by 2.92%. In contrast, Meta fell by 0.93%, Google A fell by 1.48%, and Amazon fell by 1.64%.

Nvidia once again led several chip stocks to new highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.5%, setting a new high for the fourth consecutive day, and the industry ETF SOXX also rose by 1% to a new high. Nvidia rose by 3.5% to a new high, with a market value of $3.19 trillion, ranking third in the US stock market. The Nvidia double long ETF rose by 6.8% to a new high. AMD fell by 1.8% and then closed down by 0.2%, hovering at a one-month low; TSMC's US stock rose by 0.2%, Qualcomm rose by over 1%, Broadcom rose by over 12%, and Micron Technology rose by 1.7%, all setting new historical highs. However, Intel fell by about 1%, and Applied Materials fell away from new highs.

AI concept stocks generally fell. CrowdStrike fell by over 1%, Oracle fell by 0.4%, both detaching from historical highs. SoundHound.ai fell by 0.7%, BigBear.ai fell by over 2%, C3.ai fell by over 3%, Snowflake fell by over 3% to a 17-month low, Palantir fell by over 2%, but Dell rose by over 2%, and Super Micro Computer rose by over 12% to the highest in more than two weeks.

In terms of news, Broadcom rose by 16% during the trading day, marking the largest increase in four years, as its second fiscal quarter performance exceeded expectations and it raised guidance for the full fiscal year, announcing a "1-for-10" stock split plan. Nvidia's global market share of independent graphics cards rose to 88% in the first quarter. Musk stated that Tesla shareholders will approve his $56 billion compensation package. Reports indicate that in the past six months, OpenAI's annualized revenue has doubled from the end of last year to $3.4 billion, with Microsoft taking a cut from the sales of OpenAI's AI models, and Apple will pay OpenAI by helping with distribution rather than paying cash.

Chinese concept stocks narrowed their gains after midday. ETF KWEB rose by 0.7%, CQQQ rose by 0.5%, and the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) opened up by 1.3% and then closed up by 0.3%, still hovering at a seven-week low, briefly breaking through 6200 points at the beginning of the trading day.

Among popular stocks, JD.com fell by 0.5%, Baidu rose by over 2% and then turned down by 0.4%, Pinduoduo almost erased a 1% gain. Alibaba fell by nearly 1%, Tencent ADR rose by 1.4%, Bilibili, which launched the public test of the mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy Decides the World," rose by over 13% and then closed up by 7.7%. New energy vehicles opened with a gap, NIO rose by 3.6% and then turned down by 0.9%, Li Auto rose by 4.7% and then closed up by 2.5%, XPeng Motors rose by 2% and then turned down by 1.5%.

The retail investor-led stock GameStop experienced significant fluctuations over the past week, falling nearly 40% last Friday, falling another 12% on Monday, rising by nearly 23% on Tuesday, falling by over 16% on Wednesday, and rising by over 14% on Thursday, ending the week slightly up. On Wednesday, the trading volume of the same call options held by "retail leader Roaring Kitty" was more than nine times the usual, causing the price of these option contracts to fall by 40%, accelerating the decline in GME's stock price.

In addition, space tourism company Virgin Galactic fell by over 14% to a historical low, dropping by more than 16% at one point during the trading day. The stock has been consistently below $1 per share since entering June, and the board of directors approved a 1-for-20 reverse stock split plan.

European stocks returned to a downward trend. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down by 1.31%, hitting a two-week low since May 29, with automotive stocks falling by over 2%, leading all sectors to a four-month low. The Eurozone STOXX 50 blue-chip index and the national stock indices of Germany, France, and Italy all fell by about 2%, with French stocks hitting a four-month low, and German stocks breaking through the key technical position of the 50-day moving average.

Expectations of interest rate cuts led to a continuous record low in US Treasury yields for ten weeks, and the yield spread between French and German core bonds reached the widest in seven years.The unexpected cooling of inflation has sparked expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a two-day decline in U.S. Treasury yields. The中标 yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury auction was lower than the pre-issuance trading level, stimulating the U.S. Treasury prices to continue to rise and yields to fall.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell by more than 8 basis points to 4.66%, and continued to break through the 4.70% threshold at the end of the day, reaching the lowest level in ten weeks since April 5th. The 10-year benchmark yield fell by 7 basis points to less than 4.22%,刷新ing the lowest level in nearly two and a half months since April 1st.

The European benchmark 10-year German bund yield fell by 6 basis points to 2.47% at the end of the day, with a cumulative decline of 20 basis points in the last three trading days. The 10-year French bond yield continued to rise by 2.5 basis points, making the French/German bond yield spread close at 70 basis points, the widest since 2017, highlighting the risk-aversion sentiment. The poor performance of German bund yields is related to MSCI's decision not to include EU bonds in the government bond index.

The U.S. dollar rebounded to approach a four-week high near 105, with the euro trading at a six-week low, and Bitcoin falling by more than 2% to break below $67,000.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell to a daily low after the PPI data but turned positive during the U.S. stock market, rising by 0.6% and rebounding above the 105 mark, erasing most of yesterday's losses and approaching a four-week high.

Analysts say that the dollar's rise is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's expectation to cut interest rates only once this year, but the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has curbed some of the dollar's gains. Yesterday's CPI data once caused the dollar to fall by 1%, and the decline narrowed at the end of the day but still recorded the largest drop in two weeks.

The euro fell by more than 0.6% against the dollar and broke through 1.08 again, trading at a new low in nearly six weeks, and had recorded the largest single-day gain this year yesterday. The British pound also fell by 0.3% against the dollar, breaking through 1.28 again, with some tension ahead of the UK general election on July 4th.

The Japanese yen fell slightly against the dollar and hovered around the 157 mark, trading at a one-week low, and had fallen to a sixteen-year low against the pound overnight. The market is waiting to see whether the Bank of Japan will reduce bond purchases on Friday. The offshore yuan against the dollar once approached 7.26 yuan before the U.S. stock market, and turned slightly lower during the U.S. stock market, testing 7.27 yuan, approaching the monthly low again.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies fell together. The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin, fell by 2% and broke below $67,000, returning to the lowest level in more than three weeks. The second-largest Ethereum also fell by more than 2% and broke below $3,500, both reaching the lowest levels since mid-to-late May.

U.S. inflation cooled, Russia promised to cut oil production, and OPEC言论 boosted oil demand expectations, with oil prices rising slightly by more than 0.1%.WTI crude oil futures for July settled up $0.12, a gain of over 0.15%, at $78.62 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for August settled up $0.15, a gain of 0.18%, at $82.75 per barrel.

WTI crude oil reached a session high of $0.54 or 0.71%, briefly breaking through the $79 psychological level, while international Brent crude reached a session high of $0.45 or a 0.54% increase, briefly returning above $83, but oil prices accelerated to the downside after the close.

Analysis points out that the unexpected decline in the US PPI further proves that inflationary pressures are easing, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, stimulate the economy, and oil consumption.

Secondly, the Secretary-General of OPEC published a statement on Thursday refuting the pessimistic monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA's report previously bearishly indicated that global oil demand would peak around 2029. Following this, on Thursday, the OPEC Secretary-General criticized the IEA's views as misleading to consumers, leading to a surge in oil market volatility. He emphasized that billions of people worldwide still lack access to energy, and the demand for oil will continue to grow.

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Energy announced on Thursday that after slightly exceeding production targets under the OPEC+ agreement framework in May, Russia is expected to meet its oil production quota in June. The ministry noted that the overproduction issue in May will be resolved through production adjustments in June, ensuring the achievement of the set targets. Additionally, according to a decree published on the Russian government's legal database, President Putin will not sell crude oil and petroleum products to foreign buyers who comply with international pricing caps, extending this ban until December 31, 2024.

US natural gas futures for July settled down over 2.82%, at $2.9590 per million British thermal units. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a weekly natural gas storage report stating that US natural gas stocks increased by 74 billion cubic feet last week, a weekly increase of 2.55% (up 3.51% the previous week), reaching 2.97 trillion cubic feet.

Gold futures fell nearly 1.5%, silver fell over 4% and broke below $30,伦铜 fell 1.5%, nickel fell 2.3%, and zinc and tin fell by about 1.1%.

The favorable PPI data did not support a rise in precious metals. COMEX gold futures for August fell by about 1.49% to $2,319.7 per ounce. COMEX silver futures for July fell by 4.04% to $29.045 per ounce, breaking below the $30 psychological level.

Spot gold fell nearly $27 or nearly 1.2%, briefly breaking below the $2,300 per ounce threshold. Spot silver fell by over 3.6% and broke below the $29 psychological level.

Despite a cooling of inflation in May, gold prices fell on Thursday. Tai Wong, an independent metal trader in New York, stated that this week, despite favorable data, gold failed to maintain an upward trend, indicating a general prevalence of profit-taking. Chinese buying interest may resume at lower price levels; it is unclear what the specific price point will be, but purchases have not occurred at levels above $2,300.London's base metals for industry generally fell:

In addition, during the night session, domestic black futures rose, with asphalt, fuel oil, caustic soda, and glass night sessions closing up to 0.61%, coking coal increased by 0.68%, and coke increased by 2.1%. Meanwhile, international copper fell by 0.86% during the night session, Shanghai nickel fell by 1.40%, and Shanghai tin fell by 1.62%.